Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks

Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks

Neil, Martin; Fenton, Norman

Taylor & Francis Ltd

10/2024

660

Mole

9781032917917

Pré-lançamento - envio 15 a 20 dias após a sua edição

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There Is More to Assessing Risk Than Statistics.

The Need for Causal, Explanatory Models in Risk Assessment.

Measuring Uncertainty: The Inevitability of Subjectivity.

The Basics of Probability.

Bayes' Theorem and Conditional Probability.

From Bayes' Theorem to Bayesian Networks.

Defining the Structure of Bayesian Networks.

Building and Eliciting Node Probability Tables.

Numeric Variables and Continuous Distribution Functions.

Hypothesis Testing and Confidence Intervals.

Modeling Operational Risk.

Systems Reliability Modeling.

Bayes and the Law.

Learning Bayesian Networks.

Decision making, Influence Diagrams and Value of information.

Bayesian networks in forensics.

Using Bayesian networks to debunk bad statistics.

Bayesian networks for football prediction.

Appendix A: The Basics of Counting.

Appendix B: The Algebra of Node Probability Tables.

Appendix C: Junction Tree Algorithm.

Appendix D: Dynamic Discretization.

Appendix E: Statistical Distributions.
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BN Model;BN;causal model;Brier Score;influence diagram;Vice Versa;uncertainty;Monty Hall;agenarisk;Prosecution Hypothesis;systems engineering;decision making;Hybrid BN;Norman Fenton;UK National Lottery;Martin Neil;Prosecutor's Fallacy;BN Structure;Junction Tree;Boolean Nodes;Posterior Odds;Posterior Probability;Null Hypothesis;Prior Odds;Data Set;RMP;Chance Node;Utility Nodes;Bayes Factor;D1 Test;Ranked Nodes;Tornado Graph