From Uncertainty to Policy: A Guide to Migration Scenarios

Contents
Foreword by Adrian E. Raftery xi
Acknowledgements xvi
PART I FOUNDATIONS
1 Introduction: migration uncertainty, policy and scenarios 2
Jakub Bijak
2 Collecting evidence: ingredients of scenario-building 10
Jakub Bijak and Mathias Czaika
PART II DEALING WITH EPISTEMIC
UNCERTAINTY: CONCEPTS, DRIVERS
AND DATA
3 Sources of uncertainty in migration scenarios 23
Mathias Czaika, Heidrun Bohnet, Federica Zardo
and Jakub Bijak
4 Migration drivers across time and space: selected
examples 38
Marta Bivand Erdal, Helga de Valk, Jackline
Wahba and Jakub Bijak
5 Estimating European migration flows 52
Peter W.F. Smith, Nico Keilman, Georgios
Aristotelous and Jakub Bijak
PART III ADAPTING TO ALEATORY
UNCERTAINTY: SCANNING THE FUTURE
WITH SCENARIOS
6 Ways of dealing with uncertainty in migration scenarios 72
Emily Barker and Jakub Bijak
7 Setting scenarios: combining numbers and stories 84
Michaela Potancokova, Helga de Valk, Rafael
Costa, Michael Boissonneault and Jakub Bijak
PART IV FROM MIGRATION SCENARIOS TO
EVIDENCE-INFORMED POLICIES
8 Communico, ergo sum? Potential and pitfalls of
knowledge exchange 100
Daniela Vono de Vilhena, Andreas Edel and Christian Kobsda
9 Forecasting asylum: the perspective of the
European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA) 114
Teddy A. Wilkin and Constantinos Melachrinos
10 Comment: dealing with uncertainty in population
projections 124
Rainer Muenz
11 Contested realities: context and the ethics of
migration scenarios 131
Ann Singleton
PART V CONCLUSIONS
12 Conclusion to From Uncertainty to Policy:
A Guide to Migration Scenarios 137
Jakub Bijak
References 148
Online resources 164
Glossary of key terms 166

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• Pesquisa e estatística social
• Geografia humana
• População e demografia
• Migração de imigração, emigração e

Complexity; Migration futures; Policy advice; Preparedness; Scenario building; Uncertainty